Crude oil stocks up 1.9 million barrels
Gasoline stocks down 1.3 million barrels
Distillates stocks down 2 million barrels
Refinery utilization, or run rate, down 1 percentage point to 86.1% of capacity
U.S. commercial crude oil stocks are expected to show an increase of 1.9 million barrels for the reporting week ended February 14, a Platts analysis and survey of oil analysts showed Tuesday.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its weekly report at 4:30 p.m. EST (2130 GMT) Wednesday, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly data at 11 a.m. EST (1600 GMT) Thursday. Both reports are delayed a day due to Monday's public holiday in the U.S.
The expected gain in stocks is in line with the week-over-week increase shown by the EIA five-year average.
Analysts surveyed expect refinery utilization rates to have fallen by 1 percentage point, which would be consistent with a build in crude oil stocks. That would bring utilization rates back to around 86.1% of capacity, according to EIA data, and put crude oil runs just above 15 million barrels per day (b/d), still well above seasonal norms.
Several U.S. refineries experienced unplanned outages the week ended February 14, including a gasoline unit at Tesoro's 166,000 b/d Golden Eagle refinery in Martinez, California. Chevron shut several process units at its 243,000 b/d refinery in Richmond, California, while Phillips 66 idled a fluid catalytic cracker at its Ponca City, Oklahoma refinery. Philadelphia Energy Solutions shut a crude oil unit for planned maintenance at its 330,000 b/d Philadelphia refinery February 7.
The outages were partially offset by the return of producing units at Shell's 145,000 b/d Puget Sound refinery in Washington and Delek's 70,000 b/d El Dorado, Arkansas, refinery.
Data from Macquarie shows nearly 3 million b/d of operable U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) refinery capacity is, or will be, offline across the first quarter of 2014. That is nearly one-third of total USGC operable capacity. EIA data for the week ended February 7 showed USGC refineries were operating far in excess of this, at around 88% of capacity.
Some analysts expect the crude oil build could be tapered should imports continue to get backed out. "I know that [estimates for the size of the build will be high] because of the refineries down for maintenance," Oil Outlooks President Carl Larry said. "But there is no need to be bringing in imports if tanks are full and plenty of crude oil is still being locally grown."
U.S. crude oil production at 8.13 million b/d for the week ended February 7 was more than 200,000 b/d higher than imports, which were around 7.93 million b/d.
And while stocks at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) delivery point at Cushing, Oklahoma, continue to fall, stocks on the USGC are trending higher. That is likely to continue even if imports remain low, as crude oil runs decline.
Cushing stocks have fallen during the past three reporting weeks to around 37.6 million barrels for the week ended February 7, essentially even with the five-year average. That compares to last January, when Cushing stocks were more than 51.7 million barrels.
The draining of Cushing supplies, as well as lower crude oil runs, has seen USGC crude oil stocks rise by nearly 13 million barrels since the week ended January 10.
Analysts surveyed expect U.S. distillate stocks to have fallen another 2 million barrels the week ended February 14.
"With refinery production down and cold weather up the East Coast, we can expect this number to really impress," said Larry, who expects to see distillate stocks drop 2.5 million barrels.
"I'll keep my cool for now, but the numbers may be some of the biggest of this year and last," he said.
Sustained cold temperatures across much of the U.S. have put pressure on distillate inventories. U.S. Atlantic Coast combined low and ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) stocks at 17.21 million barrels are nearly 34.5% below the five-year average.
Stocks were 22.7 million barrels around this time last year.
And production seems to have a hard time keeping up. Combined low sulfur and ULSD production at 4.3 million b/d is around 300,000 b/d higher than the five-year average. But it's well off record highs seen just ahead of the spike in winter demand. Production was more than 4.9 million b/d during the weeks ended December 6 and December 27.
Meanwhile, U.S. gasoline stocks are expected to have fallen 1.3 million barrels the week ended February 14, nearly double the decline seen in the EIA five-year average.
New York - February 18, 2014
Platts Survey of Analysts
Crude oil stocks up 1.9 million barrels
Gasoline stocks down 1.3 million barrels
Distillates stocks down 2 million barrels
Refinery utilization, or run rate, down 1 percentage point to 86.1% of capacity
U.S. commercial crude oil stocks are expected to show an increase of 1.9 million barrels for the reporting week ended February 14, a Platts analysis and survey of oil analysts showed Tuesday.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its weekly report at 4:30 p.m. EST (2130 GMT) Wednesday, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly data at 11 a.m. EST (1600 GMT) Thursday. Both reports are delayed a day due to Monday's public holiday in the U.S.
The expected gain in stocks is in line with the week-over-week increase shown by the EIA five-year average.
Analysts surveyed expect refinery utilization rates to have fallen by 1 percentage point, which would be consistent with a build in crude oil stocks. That would bring utilization rates back to around 86.1% of capacity, according to EIA data, and put crude oil runs just above 15 million barrels per day (b/d), still well above seasonal norms.
Several U.S. refineries experienced unplanned outages the week ended February 14, including a gasoline unit at Tesoro's 166,000 b/d Golden Eagle refinery in Martinez, California. Chevron shut several process units at its 243,000 b/d refinery in Richmond, California, while Phillips 66 idled a fluid catalytic cracker at its Ponca City, Oklahoma refinery. Philadelphia Energy Solutions shut a crude oil unit for planned maintenance at its 330,000 b/d Philadelphia refinery February 7.
The outages were partially offset by the return of producing units at Shell's 145,000 b/d Puget Sound refinery in Washington and Delek's 70,000 b/d El Dorado, Arkansas, refinery.
Data from Macquarie shows nearly 3 million b/d of operable U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) refinery capacity is, or will be, offline across the first quarter of 2014. That is nearly one-third of total USGC operable capacity. EIA data for the week ended February 7 showed USGC refineries were operating far in excess of this, at around 88% of capacity.
Some analysts expect the crude oil build could be tapered should imports continue to get backed out. "I know that [estimates for the size of the build will be high] because of the refineries down for maintenance," Oil Outlooks President Carl Larry said. "But there is no need to be bringing in imports if tanks are full and plenty of crude oil is still being locally grown."
U.S. crude oil production at 8.13 million b/d for the week ended February 7 was more than 200,000 b/d higher than imports, which were around 7.93 million b/d.
And while stocks at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) delivery point at Cushing, Oklahoma, continue to fall, stocks on the USGC are trending higher. That is likely to continue even if imports remain low, as crude oil runs decline.
Cushing stocks have fallen during the past three reporting weeks to around 37.6 million barrels for the week ended February 7, essentially even with the five-year average. That compares to last January, when Cushing stocks were more than 51.7 million barrels.
The draining of Cushing supplies, as well as lower crude oil runs, has seen USGC crude oil stocks rise by nearly 13 million barrels since the week ended January 10.
Analysts surveyed expect U.S. distillate stocks to have fallen another 2 million barrels the week ended February 14.
"With refinery production down and cold weather up the East Coast, we can expect this number to really impress," said Larry, who expects to see distillate stocks drop 2.5 million barrels.
"I'll keep my cool for now, but the numbers may be some of the biggest of this year and last," he said.
Sustained cold temperatures across much of the U.S. have put pressure on distillate inventories. U.S. Atlantic Coast combined low and ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) stocks at 17.21 million barrels are nearly 34.5% below the five-year average.
Stocks were 22.7 million barrels around this time last year.
And production seems to have a hard time keeping up. Combined low sulfur and ULSD production at 4.3 million b/d is around 300,000 b/d higher than the five-year average. But it's well off record highs seen just ahead of the spike in winter demand. Production was more than 4.9 million b/d during the weeks ended December 6 and December 27.
Meanwhile, U.S. gasoline stocks are expected to have fallen 1.3 million barrels the week ended February 14, nearly double the decline seen in the EIA five-year average.
