Giá dầu tăng trở lại sau 05 ngày giảm giá

Phiên châu Á sáng nay, giá dầu thô Ä‘ã quay đầu tăng trở lại sau chuá»—i giảm giá 05 liên tiếp do giá»›i đầu tÆ° nhận thấy rằng giá dầu Ä‘ã giảm xuống mức thấp và Ä‘ây là mức lý tưởng để mua vào, hÆ¡n nữa đồng USD giảm giá so vá»›i EUR cÅ©ng làm tăng tính hấp dẫn của hàng hóa.

Đây là lần đầu tiên trong 6 ngày đồng Ä‘ô la giảm giá so vá»›i euro, tá»· giá EUR/USD hiện Ä‘ang ở mức 1,2663, trÆ°á»›c Ä‘ó lúc 9h17 sáng giờ Singapore, tỉ giá cặp tiền tệ này là 1,2660.

Hôm qua, giá dầu thô rÆ¡i xuống Ä‘áy thấp nhất trong 11 tuần trong bối cảnh doanh số bán nhà ở cÅ© tại Mỹ trong tháng 7  giảm mạnh hÆ¡n cả dá»± báo, khiến tâm lý các nhà đầu tÆ° lại thêm phần lo ngại cho tốc Ä‘á»™ tăng trưởng kinh tế toàn cầu cÅ©ng nhÆ° nhu cầu nhiên liệu. Thêm vào Ä‘ó, sức ép từ thị trường chứng khoán Mỹ tiếp tục trượt giá, chỉ số S&P500 giảm 1,5% xuống 1.051,87 Ä‘iểm, còn chỉ số Dow Jones giảm 1,3% xuống 10.040,45 Ä‘iểm.

NhÆ° vậy, sau 5 ngày giảm giá, giá dầu Ä‘ã mất 5,5%. Có lẽ đối vá»›i các thÆ°Æ¡ng nhân và các nhà đầu tÆ°, giá Ä‘ã giảm quá nhiều, quá nhanh và họ coi Ä‘ây là má»™t thời Ä‘iểm thích hợp để mua vào, Victor Shum tại Purvin & Gertz Inc nhận xét. Giá càng tiến về gần 70 USD/thùng càng hấp dẫn các nhà đầu tÆ° mua vào.

Đầu tÆ° vào các công cụ vốn vẫn có lãi. Đơn đặt hàng lâu bền rất có thể sẽ tăng trong tháng 7 sau 2 tháng giảm trÆ°á»›c Ä‘ó, các nhà kinh tế lạc quan khi dá»± báo nhÆ° thế.

Thêm vào sá»± lạc quan này, tập Ä‘oàn sản xuất dầu khí Saudi Aramco của Arập Xê Út Ä‘Æ°a ra dá»± báo, giá dầu vào cuối năm nay sẽ ở mức 82 USD/thùng vá»›i nhu cầu đến từ Trung Quốc và Ấn Độ.

Chuyên gia Mohamed Daoudi – đứng đầu bá»™ phận nghiên cứu và công nghệ tại Aramco Overseas Co. BV – hôm qua cho biết, “Viá»…n cảnh tÆ°Æ¡ng đối sáng sủa. Sẽ có thêm nhu cầu đối vá»›i dầu. Các bạn có thể thấy Trung Quốc và Ấn Độ sẽ cần má»™t lượng tiêu thụ lá»›n để phục vụ cho sá»± phát triển rá»™ng lá»›n của nền kinh tế. Hầu hết các chuyến hàng xuất khẩu của Saudi Aramco đều tá»›i các khu vá»±c này.”

Trên sàn Nymex, dầu thô tÆ°Æ¡ng lai giao tháng 10 lúc 10h30 sáng giờ Singapore tăng 32 cents, hay 0,5% lên 71,95 USD/thùng. TrÆ°á»›c Ä‘ó lúc 9h18 giá tăng 25 cents (0,4%) lên 71,89 USD/thùng. Hôm qua hợp đồng này giảm tá»›i 1,47 USD (2%) xuống chốt phiên 71,63 USD/thùng – thấp nhất kể từ ngày 7/6. Tính từ đầu năm nay mức giảm còn 9,5%.

Trên sàn ICE Future Europe ngày, dầu thô Brent tÆ°Æ¡ng lai giao tháng 10 tăng 42 cents, hay 0,6% lên 72,80 USD/thùng. TrÆ°á»›c Ä‘ó lúc 10h30 giá là 72,72 USD/thùng. Hôm qua hợp đồng này giảm 1,24 USD, hay 1,7% xuống còn 72,38 USD/thùng.

Tổng hợp

Oil Snaps Five-Day Losing Streak as Decline to Near $70 Draws Investors

By Yee Kai Pin - Aug 24, 2010 7:50 PM PT Wed Aug 25 02:50:00 GMT 2010

Crude oil snapped a five-day losing streak in New York as investors took the view that the market’s decline to an 11-week low made futures attractive to buy.

Oil rebounded as the U.S. currency gave up yesterday’s gains, bolstering speculative demand for commodities as a hedge against inflation. Commercially held crude stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil-consuming nation, decreased for the third time in four weeks last week, the American Petroleum Institute industry group said yesterday.

“Oil is perhaps dropping too much, too fast for traders and investors and some see this as a buying opportunity,” Victor Shum, a senior principal at U.S. energy consultants Purvin & Gertz Inc. in Singapore. “When it gets close to the $70 level, it presents an attractive opportunity to buy.”

Crude for October delivery rose as much as 32 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $71.95 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $71.84 at 10:30 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract fell $1.47, or 2 percent, to $71.63, the lowest settlement since June 7. Futures are down 9.5 percent in 2010.

The dollar ended a five-day rally against the euro, dropping as low as $1.2663 to the common currency. It was at $1.2656 to the 16-nation euro at 10:30 a.m. in Singapore.

Economic Recovery

Oil has lost 5.5 percent in the previous five days amid concern the global economic recovery would stall and curb fuel demand. Yesterday, the National Association of Realtors said sales of previously owned homes in the U.S., the largest economy, fell more than forecast in July.

“We have been inundated with bad economic data and so sentiment has swayed to the bearish side,” said Shum at Purvin & Gertz. “But if you stepped back, the global economy has indeed recovered from a deep recession last year to an assuredly firming trend this year.”

Business investment in capital equipment remained positive. Orders for durable goods meant to last at least three years increased in July after falling in the previous two months, based on the median estimate from economists in a Bloomberg News survey before a Commerce Department report today.

Brent crude for October delivery rose as much as 42 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $72.80 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe Exchange. It was at $72.72 at 10:30 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract fell $1.24, or 1.7 percent, to $72.38.

Gasoline Demand

Retail gasoline demand in the U.S. declined 1.2 percent in the week ended Aug. 20, MasterCard Inc. reported yesterday. Motorists bought an average 9.46 million barrels a day of the fuel, from 9.57 million the week before, according to the company’s SpendingPulse report.

U.S. gasoline inventories probably decreased for a second week, falling 450,000 barrels last week, according to the median estimate from 18 analysts polled by Bloomberg News before an Energy Department report today. Crude supplies are expected to have increased 300,000 barrels after three weeks of declines, the survey showed.

Yesterday, the American Petroleum Institute said gasoline stockpiles increased 692,000 barrels to 226.2 million and crude inventories dropped 1.85 million barrels to 356.8 million.

 “The Labor Day holiday is coming and we’ve still got lots of stocks,” said Jonathan Barratt, managing director at Commodity Broking Services Pty in Sydney. “Nobody went on holidays in the U.S., everyone stayed at home. As a result, we’ve got an oversupply.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Yee Kai Pin in Singapore at kyee13@bloomberg.net

Crude Drops Below $72 as Equities Decline Amid Concern Recovery Is Slowing

By Margot Habiby - Aug 24, 2010 1:51 PM PT Tue Aug 24 20:51:18 GMT 2010

Oil dropped to its lowest level in 11 weeks as sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell more than forecast in July, boosting speculation that economic growth is slowing and curbing fuel demand.

Futures declined 2 percent as U.S. stocks plummeted after the National Association of Realtors reported purchases of existing homes tumbled 27.2 percent to a 3.83 million annual rate. U.S. crude supplies rose last week amid a 20-year high in petroleum stockpiles, according to estimates of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

“We’re getting all the classic signals that the economy is slowing down,” said Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis.

Crude for October delivery fell $1.47 to settle at $71.63 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest level since June 7. Oil has lost 13 percent since Aug. 3 and has decreased 3.7 percent in the past year.

Prices declined from the settlement as equities extended losses after oil closed. The American Petroleum Institute reported at 4:30 p.m. that U.S. crude-oil stockpiles decreased 1.85 million barrels to 356.8 million. October oil fell to $71.50 a barrel in electronic trading at 4:38 p.m.

Home sales were forecast to decline 13.4 percent to a 4.65 million rate, according to a Bloomberg News survey. The July figure was lower than all 74 responding economists estimated.

Equities, Growth

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 1.5 percent to 1,051.87, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.3 percent to 10,040.45.

U.S. gross domestic product growth probably slowed to a 1.4 percent annual pace in the second quarter, down from an estimate of 2.4 percent last month, based on the median forecast of 79 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before a Commerce Department report Aug. 27.

Oil demand typically declines in the third quarter at the end of the U.S. summer driving season, the peak gasoline consumption period. Many refiners schedule maintenance on their plants at that time.

U.S. retail gasoline demand fell 1.2 percent in the week ended Aug. 20, MasterCard Inc. reported today. Motorists bought an average 9.46 million barrels a day of the fuel, down from 9.57 million the week before, according to the company’s SpendingPulse report.

“The market continues to slip on worries about demand,” said Tom Bentz, a broker with BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. “The market is oversupplied, especially with gasoline.”

Gasoline Supply

Gasoline inventories fell 0.2 percent last week, based on the median estimate from 17 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News before an Energy Department report tomorrow.

Supplies of the motor fuel probably declined 450,000 barrels from 223.3 million in the prior week, when they were 10 percent above the five-year average, according to the Energy Department. The API report showed that gasoline stockpiles gained 692,000 barrels, or 0.3 percent, to 226.2 million.

Gasoline for September delivery fell 3.16 cents, or 1.7 percent, to settle at $1.8494 a gallon, the lowest closing price since Dec. 15.

“There’s way too much product inventory, and the economy is looking scarier by the day,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. “People are hearing the train coming.”

Oil Inventories

Stockpiles of oil and fuels climbed 5.3 million barrels to 1.13 billion in the week ended Aug. 13, the highest level since at least 1990, when the Energy Department began to collect weekly data. On a monthly basis, supplies are at the highest level since November 1983.

U.S. oil supplies probably increased 300,000 barrels last week from 354.2 million in the prior week, according to the Bloomberg poll.

“The market is extremely weak fundamentally and without a strong euro or a strong stock market, it just doesn’t have anything else to peg its hopes on,” said Peter Beutel, president of trading advisory company Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut.

The euro was little changed at $1.267 at 4:25 p.m. in New York. Before the housing report, it touched $1.2588, the lowest level since July 13. A weaker euro curbs the investment appeal of dollar-based commodities such as crude oil.

Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia’s state oil and gas producer, said crude prices may end the year as high as $82 a barrel because of demand from China and India.

Saudi Forecast

 “The prospect is good,” Mohamed Daoudi, head of research and technology at Aramco Overseas Co. BV, said yesterday in an interview in Stavanger, Norway. “There will be a need for more oil. You see India and China and the needs that are required because the developments there are huge. Most of Saudi Aramco’s exports go to that region.”

Brent crude for October delivery lost $1.24, or 1.7 percent, to $72.38 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe Exchange.

Oil volume in electronic trading on the Nymex was 549,657 contracts as of 4:25 p.m. in New York. Volume totaled 415,365 contracts yesterday, 32 percent below the average of the past three months and a four-week low. Open interest was 1.24 million contracts.